OnTheSnow knows how eager you are to get as much information as possible about this winter’s skiing conditions. We’ve gathered weather research from meteorological teams across the globe and summarised the facts. We’re bringing you our long-range weather forecast for winter 2024-2025 in Europe.
Long-range weather forecast for winter 2024-2025
On October 10, climatologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) published their latest findings: ‘La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.’
The ENSO alert system status has been changed to ‘La Niña watch’
So with La Niña looking likely to show itself any time now, how might this effect the long-range weather forecast for winter 2024-2025 in Europe?
Long-range weather forecast for winter in Europe
We know the weather phenomenon effects the temperature in the Equatorial Pacific, but how does that effect Europe? Well, according to the University of Leeds, it’s all about the jet stream. The balance between high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over Iceland effects the jet stream. This is important as the jet stream is a band of strong winds that carries rain across the Atlantic and this determines where it falls in Europe.
OnTheSnow has gathered information from leading climatologists on how a La Nina winter might effect skiing in Europe for 2024/25.
La Niña often means colder winters
The Weather Outlook says that while ‘El Niño can sometimes bring warmer winters to Europe and the UK, La Niña will usually bring colder winters.‘ So with this in mind, it certainly seems like we have reason to be optimistic about the long-range weather forecast for winter in Europe!
However, the Weather Outlook also makes it clear that both events – El Niño and La Niña – can bring extreme weather to many areas and the effects locally can be reversed, depending on the location. Over in North America, the arrival of El Niño or La Niña have more clearly defined impacts. But the further we get from the epicentre in the Pacific, the less predictable things are.
El Niño/La Niña weather patterns
Let’s find out a little more about this weather phenomenon. El Niño and La Niña are oceanic anomalies found in a region of ENSO. This stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is a region found in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which shifts between warm and cold phases.
La Niña is the cold ENSO phase while El Niño is the warm phase. As well as a difference in temperatures, there are also pressure changes.
El Niño and La Niña significantly influence tropical rainfall and pressure patterns. They connection between the ocean and atmosphere is also effected. They have their biggest impact on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. So if the meteorologists are right and a La Niña is on the way, what does this mean for snowfall in the Alps?
If you want to better understand the El Niño and La Niña weather patterns, watch this video from the Met Office . . .
El Niño and La Niña © Met Office
Other factors effecting Europe’s long-range weather forecast for winter 2024-2025
Well weather, as we know, is very hard to predict so far in advance. And that is why it is difficult to predict snowfall, especially for specific regions. Changes come from day to day. Weather often develops differently than meteorological models predicted. Some of the most reliable snowfall in Europe falls on high-altitude ski resorts, so that’s often the best bet for those who don’t want to predict the weather.
Some European ski resorts are open all year round. Check out our list of open ski resorts in Europe.
Also keep an eye on our weekly snow report published every Sunday throughout the winter season.
November 10, 2024
